Is the world on the brink of a nuclear war? And who will press the button first?

 

Image from pixabay.com 

Anis Albasha

In his famous poem "Fire and Ice" American poet Robert Frost spoke about the end of the world and whether it would be with fire or ice. In his poem, the poet inclined towards those who believed that the destruction of humanity would be with fire.

The recent events the world is witnessing seem to be moving towards realizing what the poet predicted in his poem, published almost a hundred years ago!

Since the beginning of the war that erupted between Russia on the one hand and Ukraine on the apparent side, and NATO behind the facade, in February last year, events have been moving at an accelerating pace, leading many to pessimistic scenarios, including the nuclear one.

The past few weeks have witnessed rapid events, such as the US providing Ukraine with "quality" weapons, Britain announcing its intention to deliver uranium-depleted shells to Ukraine, and shipments of modern tanks to Ukraine led by German Leopard tanks.

In response, Russia announced the deployment of "tactical" nuclear weapons in Belarus. A few days ago, there were also tense confrontations between America and China, represented in the establishment of new American military bases in the Philippines, Taiwan, and South Korea. The tension peaked when an American destroyer tried to penetrate Chinese territorial waters a few days ago, prompting the Chinese Ministry of Defense to move it away and issue an official statement condemning these American ‘provocations’

In light of these developments, talking about the use of nuclear weapons is no longer an exaggeration or speculation. Rather, the basic question regarding this point has changed from "can it happen?" to "when will it happen?". The whole world has begun to hold its breath with trepidation of the moment when one of the leaders decides to press the ‘button’.

The recent statement made by the former US President Donald Trump was an explicit expression of this concern when he said ‘that Americans need to pray after Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus!’

Days before Trump's statements, the Serbian president also expressed his fears frankly when he warned that the world was approaching a third world war. The Serbian president added that there was no end to the madness that was happening, which resembles the situations during the first and second world wars!

Unfortunately, with the passage of time, events are tending towards further escalation. Since the beginning of the confrontation with Russia, the United States has always been keen to emphasize that it would not provide Ukraine with long-range missiles, in order to avoid direct confrontation with Russia. However, the US position has changed now. Some Russian reports confirm that Ukraine has obtained quality missiles from the US, as well as other advanced weapons such as F-16 aircraft. Such measures have broken all the rules of engagement that have been agreed upon since the end of the World War II.

We should also not forget the other war that China and Russia are waging to reduce the dominance of the US dollar. This is a very serious and escalable issue. The United States certainly will not allow this to happen and to lose its most powerful weapon of sovereignty!

On the domestic front in Western countries that have long known peace and stability, things are not less tense. There is a wave of protests and demonstrations taking place in some European cities and capitals for various reasons such as inflation, high prices, decreased purchasing power, and problems in employment, health, and retirement sectors. Most of these issues are repercussions of the current war and conflict between Russia and the West.

All of these indicators point towards escalation and predict further deterioration and reckless rush towards the edge. Surely, no one wishes for the end of the world, but a close reading of events cannot rule out pessimistic scenarios. We must not forget that the leaders who are in charge are human beings, after all. Those leaders in charge are driven by purely human impulses, ambitions and fears. Therefore, impulsive decisions that may result from a moment of human weakness or despair cannot be ruled out, especially when it comes to “existential” fears.

We live in an era in which nuclear buttons have multiplied after they were monopolized by the two superpowers for a long time. Now there is a nuclear button in China, another one in North Korea, one in Israel, and perhaps by the end of this year, an "Iranian" nuclear button will be added to the list!

When Israel started its nuclear project, it called it "Machar HaKol" in Hebrew, meaning "Before Everything Is Lost," indicating that Israel would not use this destructive weapon against Arabs except when its existence is threatened. Just yesterday, Russia officially announced that the United States and the West pose an "existential" threat to the country. So, is the moment of pressing the nuclear button close?

In the poem I referred to at the beginning of the article, the poet considers the two possible ways the world might end: through fire, symbolizing the destructive power of passion, or through ice, representing the cold, calculating nature of hatred. However, humans have evolved and have also developed weapons of destruction. So, the poet's prophecy may come true. The fate of the world may be determined by a human decision that could result from "fiery" or "icy" emotions, but in any case, it will be destructive enough to cause the end of the world. Unless a miracle happens that can melt the layers of the burning Ice!